Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
