Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
